The MoviePass Math

MoviePass, the new theater subscription plan, is being rolled out again, and this time with more concrete terms and conditions. Monthly subscription fees cost between $25-40 a year depending on where you live, but you're required to sign up for an entire year at a time. Unless you meet some narrow requirements, the cancellation fee is $20. Also, you can only watch a movie once, and only one movie a day. This also does not include IMAX or 3D presentations for now. However, the big plus is that the service should work with nearly all theaters because the MoviePass will use apps and prepaid debit cards, thus circumventing the need for specific chains to opt in.

Invites to the service are being passed around, and the buzz makes it seem like MoviePass might really get off the ground this time, so it's time for me to do the math again. I live in a major city with some very expensive theaters, so my subscription fee will almost certainly be at the high end at $40 a month, or $480 for a year. I've seen roughly 30 movies in the last year at an average of $8 a ticket, which comes out to $240. If a month of MoveiPass cost $20, it would clearly be a bargain for me. But at $40 a month, is it worth the extra $240 for me to see all the movies which I would normally rent on the big screen, right when they come out? Do I value the theatrical experience that much?

Now, it's tempting to want to look at that monthly fee and think that you'd only need to see five movies a month to break even, and I can certainly find five movies a month I think are worth seeing. Heck, there are at least five movies coming out in theaters this weekend alone that I intend to see eventually: "Argo" and "Seven Psychopaths," plus "Smashed," "The Perks of Being a Wallflower" and "Middle of Nowhere" in limited release. Heck, even "Sinister" looks like a pretty good time. However, I wouldn't see every one of these in theaters even at a drastic discount, because it's not just the money but the time it takes to physically go to the theater that I have to take into account. I watch so many movies by rental in part because it's convenient and easy. You can do the laundry, eat dinner, and forgo respectable pants when you're watching a movie at home. The theater takes more of an effort.

I could easily see myself doing five to eight times a month, though. I'd just pick a weeknight and turn it into a regular part of my schedule, saving the bigger blockbusters for the weekends when I could watch them with other people. I can see some MoviePass users who like seeing movies as a social activity having some issues with coordinating viewings, but I've never minded going alone. One of the big pluses I can see if MoviePass catches on is an increase in casual viewing, countering the "event films only" mentality that's been causing so many headaches. It would definitely help smaller titles that more people tend to wait for the rental window to see. If you're paying a flat fee anyway, suddenly it's not such a big deal to try a potentially bad movie, and people might become bolder in their viewing choices.

Then again, what's wrong with waiting for rental? There aren't that many films I think I'd really benefit from seeing in theaters, especially since I've invested in a good home theater setup. Sure, I made a point of seeing "The Master" in theaters for the cinematography and a lot of the fun of "The Avengers" and "The Dark Knight Rises" was the crowd, but I don't think any of the movies I listed coming out this week really need the big screen. So the biggest benefit of MoviePass for me would be keeping up with the new releases when they're actually new. I could write my reviews for most movies the weekend they actually come out. I could finally become a fully informed Oscar viewer.

Also, I can already see a way of gaming the system a little. If I only want MoviePass for the winter months when all the awards contenders are out, let's say November through January, then it's just $140 when you factor in the cancellation fee. I could easily find twenty or thirty films in that time frame, especially when you factor in all the limited releases. This would also bring down the per unit price to something I'd be more comfortable with. If I were to start MoviePass, I'd drop my paid streaming and DVD by mail services, but I'd still wind up paying significantly more for my screen entertainment, and I'd still end up renting titles I didn't hear about in time to see in theaters.

I am glad that MoviePass is getting a real shot at viability, but I'm not sure I can justify jumping in right away. If ticket prices keep going up the way they have been, though, I think anybody who loves movies should start doing the math.
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