NBC and the State of Network TV

Big news over the weekend. Fans of "Community" will be happy to hear that ousted showrunner Dan Harmon will be returning former season five, possibly along with another former writer, Chris McKenna. This is an unprecedented move. Showrunners generally never return to the shows they've left, especially when they've been fired the way that Harmon was. However, nothing is normal at NBC these days. "Community" is one of only two comedies that they renewed this year, along with "Parks and Recreation," because even though its ratings are low, it reliably brings in the most prized demographic of younger viewers, the ones who have been abandoning network television in droves lately. It's likely the same reason why they renewed the low-rated "Hannibal" for a second season last week, a very, very late decision that happened well after the big upfront presentations of next year's lineup. At the moment, neither "Community" or "Hannibal" are technically on the NBC schedule, which underscores how unusual both decisions are.

Even though this is good news for me, because I like "Community" and "Hannibal," there's no way that any other broadcast network would have brought them back. The shows have only survived because of how dire the situation is at NBC, and has been for so long. The ups and downs of the networks are usually out of the public eye, of interest to business analysts mostly. However, the epic decline of NBC from the highest rated network for much of the 90s and early 2000s to a fourth place also-ran that is losing ground to cable broadcasts and Univision, has become common knowledge. Some blame specific executives, the mishandling of established hits, and bungled launches of new shows. There have been a string of high-profile bombs over the last ten years, including the particularly damaging decision to put Jay Leno in the 10PM hour during the 2009-2010 season. The once prized Thursday night comedy lineup lost "30 Rock" and "The Office" this year, leaving the much beloved but little watched "Parks and Recreation" to anchor the night. Three new Thursday comedies will be launched in the fall to try and fill the gaps, a risky move considering NBC's recent track record with sitcoms. However, the network doesn't have many options at the moment.

The success and failure of the networks tends to be cyclical. ABC went through similar third place woes in the 70s, and CBS had a bad slump in the 80s. FOX, of course, started out at the bottom in 1986. Usually networks are more interesting when they're in trouble. The programming gets more experimental and innovative. Programmers take risks that they wouldn't otherwise. Right now, NBC is the network I tend to watch the most because its programming is more ambitious and daring than what you find in the rest of the mainstream. If history is any indicator, eventually one of these experiments is going to work, and NBC will be able to dig itself out of the ratings hole. However, network television is currently in a particularly unstable period, with viewing numbers down across the board, and increasing audience defections to cable television and the internet. As the recent battles over retransmission fees have revealed, network revenues are shrinking, and it may not be financially feasible for some of the major players to continue if the ratings continue to drop. There's a growing possibility that NBC could be sunk for good.

This past season was particularly dramatic. NBC had several shows that seemed to connect early on: "Revolution," "Smash," and "Go On." However, all of them suffered severe declines and "Smash" and "Go On" ended up cancelled. Their biggest hit, "The Voice," hasn't been able to function as an effective lead-in for the programs scheduled after it. "Do No Harm," the heavily hyped medical drama that was supposed to fill the 10PM Thursday night slot occupied for so many years by "ER," posted historically low premiere ratings in February, and was quickly axed after only two episodes. It was the latest in a long line of promising NBC dramas that bombed in the same time slot. Nearly all of the network's early gains were erased by the time May finales rolled around, and NBC finished in 4th place. The NBC execs are faced with starting over yet again, building on a schedule that's in even worse shape than last year.

However, the situation may not be as dire as it looks. It's important to remember that NBC is still getting the viewers that the advertisers want. This season it was a respectable third in the 18-49 demographic, and tied for second with CBS in the 18-34 demographic. And if they've been losing viewers, other networks have been losing more. It was FOX came out with the biggest losses, down a staggering 22% of total viewers from last year, while the other networks saw single digit drops. Whatever forces are causing the declines of network television, it's FOX that's currently feeling the brunt of the impact. However, it's pretty clear all that nearly all the major broadcast networks in the rut now, and if NBCs fortunes have been bad, the same is true of everyone else. NBC may not need to increase viewership at all to get ahead, but just hold the line.

We'll see what happens next. Stay tuned.
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